How this market resolves
The question has three outcomes: No change, Decrease, or Increase. Exactly one outcome resolves to Yes and the other two resolve to No. The question resolves based on the lower bound of the target federal funds rate range announced by the Federal Reserve for the scheduled July 2026 FOMC meeting, currently scheduled for July 28-29, 2026. No change resolves to Yes if the lower bound of the target range announced in the FOMC statement, implementation note, press release, or other official Federal Reserve source for that meeting is identical to the lower bound of the target range in effect immedi…